Of all the items on the Earth Summit agenda, none has received more public attention than global warming. Many scientists and policymakers believe that, with the possible exception of loss of the ozone layer, no environmental threat has ever had such serious implications for our planet. The world community has responded to scientists’ dire warnings by negotiating a Framework Convention on Climate Change in only fifteen months – lightning speed for international diplomacy. But in their haste to produce an agreement in time for the Earth Summit, negotiators left many gaps that will have to be filled as implementation and administration of the Convention gets underway. The Climate Convention is regarded by some as a success, because it is without question a stronger and more comprehensive agreement than earlier framework conventions, notably the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, the original model for the Climate Convention.
Others regard the agreement as a failure, since, it does not adequately address many of the most pressing issues of climate change, notably the need for reduction schedules of greenhouse gases in order to achieve the stated objective of the Convention. The United States’ insistence that the text not contain any binding commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (“targets and timetables”) leaves many wondering whether the Climate Convention will be effective even as a first step in addressing global warming. A close inspection of the Convention, however, reveals a detailed and fairly comprehensive structure addressing a very wide range of issues related to global warming. Given the relatively short time in which the Convention was negotiated, as well as the extraordinarily complex nature of the climate change problem, it is not surprising that much of the agreement is only sketchily drawn, and many questions have been left for future negotiators to answer. Still, it is important to take note of the Convention’s weaknesses, if for no other reason than to develop a roadmap for such future negotiators. For, in the end, the effectiveness of the Convention will largely be determined by the work of these individuals.